Development of Regional Crop Simulation Modeling for Jasmine under the Purview of Climate Change: A Perspective from Tamil Nadu, India

There are mounting concerns and evidences about climate change impacts on agriculture sector in general and on flowering plants in particular. There is also growing recognition that some degree of climate change impacts are now inexorable and almost all regions, sectors, and people are prone to climate change impacts to varying degrees [1,2]. Over the period 1951-2012, global mean surface temperature increased approximately by 0.12 °C per decade Although there will be advantages in some plant growth in some regions of the world, especially in higher latitudes, the overall impact of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food and livelihood security [3]. Real time experiments are conducted to understand the phonological disturbances in plants due to climate change. The strong negative impacts due to warming that limit plant growth, metabolism, and productivity worldwide have been reported by various researchers. As far as India is concerned, around 49% of our labor force is still depended up on agriculture and allied sector for their livelihood and climate plays a crucial role as about 55-60 per cent of the area sown is still rain-fed. Flowering plants like jasmine play an important role in the economical and livelihood space of rural and urban India, especially a state like Tamil Nadu [4]. Jasmine is one of the oldest fragrant flowers cultivated in India especially in many places in Tamil Nadu. India has made noticeable advance in the production of flowers, particularly cut flowers, which have a good potential for export. Floriculture is a fast emerging and highly competitive industry in our country. Jasmine is cultivated tropical and warm temperate regions and cultivated in France, Italy, China, Japan, India, Morocco and Egypt. It has emerged as a lucrative profession with the much higher potential for returns compared to other agri-horticultural crops. Flowers are an integral part of social and cultural identity of south India. In the past, flowers were not of much economic, social, religious and aesthetic importance. Synchronization of flowering to peak market price is crucial in flower farming. Tamil Nadu is the leading producer of Jasmine in the country with an annual production of 1, 20, 750 tons from a cultivated area of 15581 hectares with an average productivity of 10 MT/Ha in 201-12 [5]. The major varieties cultivated in the state are Jasminumsambac (Gundumalli/MaduraiMalli), Jasminumauriculatum (Mullai) and J. grandiflorum (Jathimalli/Pitchi), J. multiflorum, J. flexile, J. rigidum, J. humile, J. primulinum etc. The flowers harvested in the state are exported to neighboring countries like Sri Lanka, Singapore, Malaysia and the Middle East. The major Jasmine cultivating districts of Tamil Nadu are Madurai, Dindigul, Salem, Tirunelveli, Virudhunagar and Trichy. Jasmine flowers are native to India and China.